Last week for the first time in quite a while, I didn’t cringe when I looked at our monthly numbers. In fact when I finished studying them I was down-right happy. I am by no means telling you that this challenging market is behind us but I am telling you that we are starting to crawl out of the darkness.
Our “closed sales” and our “pending home sales” are more than twice what they were year to date in ’09, additionally, our walk in traffic, phone ins and web site hits are also twice what they were YTD. Island Realty is still the leader east of Cowan Creek with both listing volume and closed sales and we are the dominant force on Fripp Island (43% market share), Harbor Island (30% market share) and Coosaw Point (58% market share).
Last year we did 70% of our business in the 2nd half of 2009 and I was hopeful that the trend would continue and it has. The market continues to be demanding however and depending on what you read either the recession is behind us or soon to be over. The truth is no one can tell you for sure the exact moment that we are out of this until we are well past it. The statistics that I cited above give me great hope that we are either out from under the black cloud or soon to be and when that happens, I will be supremely happy, not happier than our buyers and sellers, but supremely happy nonetheless.
Locally, both inventory and prices are starting to stabilize. Although lending is still tight, those with good credit can still get loans. Additionally those who are able to obtain financing are snapping up property at bargain prices which is a win / win. The buyers get almost instant equity and we as neighbors and home owners get a reduction in inventory supply, which helps prices stabilize, which is critical to returning to a normal market. Indeed a win / win.
So what does my crystal ball say? Quite frankly the volatility of the market over the last two years has shattered my crystal ball. The last two years have been the toughest of my career and I was licensed in 1995. The market did strange and weird things. Banks did even stranger things on short sales and foreclosures, the stock market did strange things as well.
Truly though, I believe there is real evidence of improving conditions in many respects. Employment is improving, retail spending is improving and auto sales are up (I personally participated in boosting the auto sales). Even the most pessimistic of forecasters noted that jobs and housing would need to turn before we should feel like we are back on track. I can tell you that we at Island Realty are doing our part to keep the housing component on track, no small task, but we are doing our part. Another win / win.
